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玩三公大吃小的技巧:Q3 growth beats consensus

时间:3周前   阅读:3

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MALAYSIA’S third-quarter (3Q) gross domestic product (GDP) performance came in very strongly, beating market consensus of 11.7% and our expectation of 12.2% to expand by 14.2%.

This is the strongest quarterly GDP performance reported since the 2Q21, where the economy grew by 15.9%.

Although on an annual growth basis, the economy grew strongly on a quarter-on-quarter basis, we saw a loss of momentum.

Malaysia’s economy grew by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), slower than 2Q22’s growth of 3.5% q-o-q.

With such a strong third quarter performance, the first three quarters average would be 9.3%.

This is well above our full year growth projection of 7.5%, and Bank Negara’s forecast of 5.3% to 6.3% for 2022.

The strong growth was supported by private consumption which rose by 18.3% (2Q22: 5.5%).

The drivers to private consumption were the continuous improvement in the labour market where the unemployment rate eased further from 3.9% in the 2Q22 to 3.7% in 3Q22.

Besides, wages grew stronger. Using the manufacturing wage growth as the basis, they grew by 3% (2Q22: 2.2%).

The spending indicators were strong too. The retail trade grew by 34% (2Q22: 29.5%).

Purchases via credit cards and e-payments grew by 42.5% (2Q22: 33.4%) and 91.6% (2Q22: 72.4%) respectively.

The higher spending in 3Q22 was supported by the government’s efforts to stabilise prices of key items, including selected food items and petrol.

The disbursement of the Bantuan Keluarga Malaysia (third phase) also supported spending – a total of RM1.7bil was disbursed to eligible recipients.

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Loan growth in the 3Q22 for both households and businesses was strong, rising by 6.4% (2Q22: 5.3%) and 6.1% (2Q22: 5.4%) respectively.

The tourism sector continued to improve.

The sector is benefiting from the easing of Covid-19 measures.

It is reflected by tourist arrivals of 1.1 million in July and the rising trend that started in March.

At the same time, Malaysia’s exports had helped to power the strong growth.

Exports grew robustly by 23.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 3Q22, which is higher than the 10.4% in 2Q22.

The main driver for exports were electrical and electronics (E&E) products which grew by 41.5% (2Q22: 38%), machinery equipment and parts by 42.7% (2Q22: 23.5%), and petroleum products by 114.6% (2Q22: 60.4%).

We expect exports to continue to support growth for the remainder of the year.

Semiconductor sales

Global semiconductor sales is expected to grow by 14% in 2022.

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) also improved to 13.1% (2Q22: 5.8%).

The private sector, which contributed 80.3% to GFCF edged up to 13.2% in 3Q22 (2Q22: 6.3%).

This coincided with the continuous foreign direct investment inflow particularly in the E&E-related activities.

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